Wednesday, June 11, 2014
Stories to Watch at the Convention
Where will Joe Avellone (pictured) spend his summer vacation? I think he can start it on Sunday. (Photo courtesy of these nice people.)
Conventional wisdom calls for a Coakley/Grossman slugfest, with an edge for Grossman that is not showing up in the polls. Activists love Grossman, 'tis said. I'm not sure; I'm with Steve, and several people I know are, but I'm not feeling the groundswell yet.
So, to hell with CW. I think Coakley romps, or sinks like a stone. You read that right: next to all, or next to nothing.
Juliette Kayyem and Donald Berwick may or may not make the ballot, but I think they will both squeak it out, hovering around 17%. Berwick clearly has mo among netsrooters, but we are NOT representative, most of the time. Kayyem seems a little adrift, but she might surprise people.
I think Tolman wins the nomination, but Healey scares the hell out of him at around 40%.
In the lieutenant governor's race, the most interesting story is Leland Cheung. The proprietor and I have a respectful disagreement over the relevance of Cheung's Republican past, but if there's any crowd that will be aware of it and send a message to Cheung, it's the faithful conventioners.
There is an interesting disconnect at work. Do you know that 25% of Quincy is Asian people? But they don't vote as reliably (being mostly newer immigrants), so we haven't felt their influence much in Massachusetts. But they're there, and their support may make a difference to people such as Michelle Wu, who confidently threw progressives under the bus in her FIRST vote as a Boston City Councilor. To be direct, there won't be that many Asian delegates. How many forgiving delegates there are is another question. They will be in Tim Murray's backyard, after all, picking his successor. Sort of.
See you in Worcester! Drinks and/or strong coffee welcome.